Same Game Parlays: Are They Ever +EV?

The SGP Explosion

Same game parlays have taken over sports betting marketing. Every sportsbook pushes them. Every broadcast mentions them. They're designed to be exciting.

But are they profitable?

Short answer: Almost never. SGPs have massive built-in edge for the house.

Longer answer: In rare cases, correlation mispricings create value. Understanding when (and when not) to bet them matters.

How Same Game Parlays Work

Traditional parlays combine independent bets:

• Chiefs win + Lakers win + Yankees win
• Each outcome is uncorrelated
• Odds multiply normally

Same game parlays combine bets from ONE game:

• Chiefs win + Patrick Mahomes over 275 yards + Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions
• Outcomes are correlated
• Sportsbooks adjust (reduce) odds to account for correlation

The catch: Sportsbooks control how much they reduce for correlation, and they almost always reduce more than mathematically necessary.

The Correlation Problem

Positive correlation example:

If the Chiefs win by a lot, Mahomes probably had a big game. Taking Chiefs -7 and Mahomes over 275 passing yards are positively correlated. Both are more likely to happen together.

Without correlation adjustment, you'd get:

• Chiefs -7: +100 (2.0)
• Mahomes over 275: +100 (2.0)
• Parlay: +300 (4.0)

But since they're correlated, the true parlay odds should be lower (maybe +200). Sportsbooks know this and reduce.

The question: Do they reduce by the right amount, too much, or not enough?

Almost always: Too much. That's their profit margin on SGPs.

Why Sportsbooks Love SGPs

1. Higher margins

Regular spread bet: ~4.5% house edge SGP: 15-30%+ house edge

That's 3-6x more profitable for the book.

2. Entertainment value

Bettors love rooting for multiple outcomes. It's more engaging than a single bet. Entertainment value means bettors accept worse odds.

3. Hard to compare

You can't easily line shop SGPs. Each book uses proprietary correlation models. Bettors can't verify if the pricing is fair.

4. Complexity obscures edge

In a 4-leg SGP, how do you calculate if you're getting value? Most bettors can't. They just click and pray.

The Math Against You

Example breakdown:

Individual legs with true probabilities:

• Leg 1: 50% (fair odds +100)
• Leg 2: 50% (fair odds +100)
• Leg 3: 50% (fair odds +100)

Independent parlay math: 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 12.5% Fair parlay odds: +700

With 50% positive correlation boost, true probability might be 15%. Fair correlated odds: +567

Sportsbook offers: +400

You're getting +400 when fair value is +567. That's a 30%+ disadvantage.

When SGPs Might Have Value

SGPs are almost always -EV. But "almost" isn't "always."

Potential value scenarios:

1. Negative Correlation Mispricing

If legs are negatively correlated but priced as independent:

• Team total over 30 + opponent wins
• If opponent wins, the game was likely lower scoring

Some books don't properly adjust for negative correlations, giving you better odds than deserved.

2. Weak Correlation Modeling

Books use models to price correlation. Models can be wrong.

If you've studied how specific events correlate better than the book's model, you might find edge.

3. Boosted SGPs

Promotional boosts can overcome the house edge:

• "Get +500 on this SGP" when fair value is +450
• The boost creates +EV

Warning: Books aren't stupid. Boosted SGPs often have subtle negative correlation that eats the boost value.

4. Player Prop Correlations

Player props within a game have complex correlations books might misprice:

• Target share shifts when a receiver gets hurt
• Usage rates when a teammate is out
• Game script effects on second-half stats

If you have sharper correlation estimates than the book, edge exists.

Building Better SGPs (If You Must)

If you're going to bet SGPs anyway:

Stick to 2 Legs

Every leg multiplies house edge. A 2-leg SGP has lower total vig than a 4-leg.

Choose Weakly Correlated Legs

The more correlated your legs, the more the book reduces your odds. Less correlation means less reduction, better relative pricing.

Weak correlation example:

• First quarter result + second half player prop
• Quarter outcomes don't strongly correlate with second half individual stats

Avoid Obvious Correlations

Everyone knows "QB throws a lot + team loses" correlates. Books price this accurately.

Find correlations the market doesn't fully appreciate.

Compare Across Books

SGP pricing varies more than regular odds. A 3-leg SGP might be +350 at Book A and +380 at Book B.

The Bottom Line on SGPs

For entertainment: Fine. Treat it like a lottery ticket. Small stakes, no expectation of profit.

For profit: Almost never. The house edge is too large to overcome consistently.

Where sharps bet: Single bets, or independent parlays when necessary. Not SGPs.

Exception: Promotions that boost SGP odds beyond fair value. These are rare and usually limited.

Better Alternatives

If you want multi-leg action:

Regular Parlays (Independent Events)

Parlays of independent outcomes have standard vig (~4.5% per leg). Still -EV but far less than SGPs.

Round Robins

Multiple smaller parlay combinations give more outs than one big parlay.

Our round robin calculator shows all combinations and payouts.

Teasers (Football)

Buying points across multiple football games can be +EV with the right numbers (crossing key numbers like 3 and 7).

Key Takeaways

• SGPs have 15-30%+ house edge, far worse than regular bets
• Sportsbooks love SGPs because they're highly profitable
• Correlation adjustments almost always favor the book
• SGPs are entertainment, not a profit strategy
• Potential value exists only in mispriced correlations (rare)
• Boosted SGPs can be +EV but verify the math
• Stick to 2 legs max if you must bet SGPs
• Avoid obvious correlations that books price accurately
• For profit-focused betting, stick to single bets with edge
• Use our value scanner to find actual +EV opportunities instead