Expected Value Calculator
Odds Format
Odds
Win Probability
Expected Value
How To Use Our Expected Value Calculator
This tool calculates your profit margin for any given wager. All you need to input are two simple variables: the odds of your bet and the implied win probability. This can either come from a reliable sports betting model or be calculated using the no-vig “fair” odds from top-tier sportsbooks.
Understanding how to calculate the no-vig “fair” odds is crucial. By removing the bookmaker’s margin, you get a clearer picture of the true win probability. For instance, if the sharpest book in the industry offers a team at -105 odds on both sides, the no-vig “fair” odds would be +100, implying a 50% win probability for each team.
Let's break it down with an example. Suppose you place a $100 bet on the Los Angeles Lakers with -105 odds. If a reputable book shows Lakers at -105 and their opponent also at -105, the no-vig “fair” odds become +100 for both. Using this in our EV Calculator, you’ll find that the expected value (EV) of your $100 bet on the Rams at +110 odds is $5. The formula used is:
Expected Value (EV) = (Fair Win Probability) x (Profit if Win) - (Fair Loss Probability) x (Stake)
In this case:
- Fair Win Probability = 50% (or 0.50)
- Profit if Win = $110
- Fair Loss Probability = 50% (or 0.50)
- Stake = $100
So the calculation would be: 0.50 x $110 - 0.50 x $100 = $5
This indicates a positive EV, meaning the bet is profitable in the long term. Consistently placing +EV bets, like this one, ensures you'll stay ahead in the sports betting game.
Want more confidence in your betting decisions? Leverage the Kelly Criterion to determine optimal stake sizes, balancing risk and reward. Imagine flipping a fair coin - with +100 odds, the EV of a $100 bet is $0. But if the odds are +110, the EV jumps to $5, making each flip a financially wise decision.
This tool calculates your profit margin for any given wager. All you need to input are two simple variables: the odds of your bet and the implied win probability. This can either come from a reliable sports betting model or be calculated using the no-vig “fair” odds from top-tier sportsbooks.
Understanding how to calculate the no-vig “fair” odds is crucial. By removing the bookmaker’s margin, you get a clearer picture of the true win probability. For instance, if the sharpest book in the industry offers a team at -105 odds on both sides, the no-vig “fair” odds would be +100, implying a 50% win probability for each team.
Let's break it down with an example. Suppose you place a $100 bet on the Los Angeles Lakers with -105 odds. If a reputable book shows Lakers at -105 and their opponent also at -105, the no-vig “fair” odds become +100 for both. Using this in our EV Calculator, you’ll find that the expected value (EV) of your $100 bet on the Rams at +110 odds is $5. The formula used is:
Expected Value (EV) = (Fair Win Probability) x (Profit if Win) - (Fair Loss Probability) x (Stake)
In this case:
- Fair Win Probability = 50% (or 0.50)
- Profit if Win = $110
- Fair Loss Probability = 50% (or 0.50)
- Stake = $100
So the calculation would be: 0.50 x $110 - 0.50 x $100 = $5
This indicates a positive EV, meaning the bet is profitable in the long term. Consistently placing +EV bets, like this one, ensures you'll stay ahead in the sports betting game.
Want more confidence in your betting decisions? Leverage the Kelly Criterion to determine optimal stake sizes, balancing risk and reward. Imagine flipping a fair coin - with +100 odds, the EV of a $100 bet is $0. But if the odds are +110, the EV jumps to $5, making each flip a financially wise decision.