Moneyline vs Spread Betting: Which Should You Bet?

The Fundamental Difference

Moneyline: You're betting on who wins the game. Period. The margin doesn't matter.

Point Spread: You're betting on who wins after adjusting for a handicap. The favorite must win by more than the spread. The underdog can lose by less than the spread (or win outright) and still cover.

Both bet types exist because they serve different purposes and create different risk/reward profiles.

How Moneyline Bets Work

A moneyline bet is the simplest wager in sports betting. Pick the winner, collect your money.

Example:

• Chiefs -180
• Raiders +155

If you bet $180 on the Chiefs, you win $100 if they win by any margin (including 1 point in overtime). If you bet $100 on the Raiders, you win $155 if they win the game outright.

The catch: favorites require large bets for modest returns, while underdogs offer attractive payouts but win less often.

How Point Spread Bets Work

The spread levels the playing field by giving the underdog a head start.

Example:

• Chiefs -4.5 (-110)
• Raiders +4.5 (-110)

If you bet the Chiefs -4.5, they must win by 5 or more points. A Chiefs victory by 4 points loses your bet. If you bet Raiders +4.5, they can lose by up to 4 points and you still win.

Notice both sides are typically -110. The spread is set to attract equal action on both sides, making the bet closer to a coin flip from a probability standpoint.

Comparing the Same Game Both Ways

Let's look at how the same matchup prices out:

The moneyline reflects the probability of winning outright. The spread reflects the probability of covering after the handicap is applied.

If the Chiefs have a 65% chance to win but only a 52% chance to cover 4.5 points, you can see how different the two bets are.

When to Bet the Moneyline

Small Favorites (-150 or better)

When a favorite is in the -110 to -150 range, the moneyline often provides better value than laying points. You don't have to worry about covering a specific margin.

Example: A team is -2 (-110) on the spread or -130 on the moneyline. If you think they'll win but games are often close, the moneyline removes the risk of winning by only 1 point.

Underdogs You Believe Will Win Outright

If you genuinely think an underdog will win (not just cover), the moneyline pays significantly more than the spread.

Example: Raiders +4.5 (-110) pays $90.91 on a $100 bet. Raiders +155 moneyline pays $155 on the same bet. If you're confident in the upset, the moneyline is the play.

Low-Scoring Sports

In soccer, hockey, and baseball, games are often decided by one goal or run. Spreads like -1.5 in baseball (the run line) can be tough to cover even for heavy favorites. The moneyline is often preferable.

Live Betting Opportunities

When a favorite falls behind early, their live moneyline might offer plus-money value. You can get the better team at underdog odds if you believe they'll come back.

When to Bet the Spread

Heavy Favorites

When a team is -300 or worse on the moneyline, you're risking $300 to win $100. Even at 75% win probability, one upset wipes out three wins.

The spread flattens this out. That -300 favorite might be -7.5 (-110), letting you bet $110 to win $100 with less lopsided risk.

When You Expect a Close Game

If you think a game will be decided by 3 points or fewer, betting the underdog on the spread provides value. They don't need to win, just stay close.

Correlated Game Factors

When analyzing factors like pace, defensive strength, and situational angles, spreads let you express an opinion on margin rather than just the winner. If you believe the favorite will win but not cover a big number, bet the underdog spread.

Consistent Bankroll Management

Spreads at -110 provide standardized risk/reward. You know exactly what you're risking and winning on each bet, making bankroll management simpler than navigating varying moneyline prices.

The Mathematical Comparison

To compare moneyline and spread value, you need to estimate both:

1. The probability of winning outright
2. The probability of covering the spread

Example Analysis:

Your model says the Chiefs have:

• 68% chance to win outright
• 54% chance to cover -4.5

Moneyline value:

EV = (0.68 x $55.56) - (0.32 x $100) = $37.78 - $32 = +$5.78

(At -180, you risk $100 to win $55.56)

Spread value:

EV = (0.54 x $90.91) - (0.46 x $100) = $49.09 - $46 = +$3.09

(At -110, you risk $100 to win $90.91)

In this case, the moneyline offers better expected value despite requiring you to risk more per dollar of potential profit.

Use our EV calculator to run these comparisons for any game.

Alternative Lines and Buying Points

Most sportsbooks let you adjust the spread by buying or selling points:

• Chiefs -4.5 (-110) standard
• Chiefs -3.5 (-125) buying 1 point
• Chiefs -5.5 (+100) selling 1 point

Buying through key numbers (3 and 7 in football) can be valuable. But buying points at high prices often destroys value. Calculate the actual probability change before paying extra.

Sport-Specific Considerations

Football (NFL/College)

Both moneyline and spread are popular. Key numbers (3, 7, 10) matter significantly for spreads. Moneylines on underdogs can offer value since upsets happen regularly (about 35% in the NFL).

Basketball (NBA/College)

High-scoring games make spreads dominant. Moneylines on heavy favorites (-400 or worse) are rarely worth the risk since one upset destroys weeks of profit.

Baseball

The run line (-1.5/+1.5) is tough because games are often decided by one run. Most sharp bettors prefer moneylines. Five-inning lines offer alternatives.

Hockey

Similar to baseball. The puck line (-1.5/+1.5) is hard to cover. Moneylines and totals dominate sharp betting in hockey.

Soccer

Three-way moneylines (home/draw/away) are standard. Spreads exist but are less popular. The draw option significantly changes strategy compared to American sports.

Common Mistakes

Betting Big Favorites on Moneyline

Risking $500 to win $100 on a -500 favorite feels safe until the inevitable upset. Sharp bettors generally avoid laying more than -200 on moneylines.

Ignoring Correlation

If you're betting the over on a game, the favorite covering becomes more likely (they need to score to cover in a high-scoring game). These correlations matter when choosing between moneyline and spread.

Not Shopping Both Lines

Different books offer different values on moneyline vs spread. Book A might have the best spread while Book B has the best moneyline. Compare both before betting.

Key Takeaways

• Moneyline = bet on the winner, no spread involved
• Spread = bet on winning by enough (or losing by little enough)
• Bet moneylines on small favorites and live underdogs
• Bet spreads on heavy favorites and close games
• Always calculate expected value on both options
• Shop lines across multiple books since prices vary significantly